Why iPhone Won’t Redefine SMS Texting

From iPhonetics -
For all its innovations, Apple’s iPhone has slim chances of making an impact on the way mobile phone users around the world do SMS texting. In two words: QWERTY keyboard. Here’s why:

First of all, even if the Apple goes on to sell 10 million iPhones in the first year as Steve Jobs has predicted, that is just roughly 1% of the nearly 1 billion phones sold annually. You simply can’t redefine a market with such a miniscule share.

Secondly, most of the new market gains are entry level phones sold in third world countries. This implies that most buyers are first time users who in most likelihood have never used a computer before, or if ever, sparingly. Thus, for a lot of them, the mobile phone keypad has become their first exposure to typing. For the younger generation, it is their de facto standard. In fact, a lot has mastered the art of touch-typing on phone keypads. They can enter SMS messages one-handed rapidly into the phone without ever looking at the keypad or the LCD. Somehow I simply can’t imagine them doing the same with the iPhone’s on-screen QWERTY keyboard. The Apple design lends itself to two thumb typing, which is definitely far from the current single thumb texting experience.

Yes, Apple will most likely go on and sell millions of the iPhone as it has previously succeeded with the iPod. But until it adds a physical mobile phone keypad, it most likely will remain a niche play. And when it does add a keypad, it will no longer be redefining the SMS experience but merely improving it.

SMS the iPhone way

With the iPhone getting well over 69 million hits in Google, it is surprising that there is very little discussion on how it deals with SMS texting. Surprising because the iPhone is well a mobile phone. It also does not have a physical keypad. And just as importantly, it processes and presents messages that can be considered a radical departure from the familiar sequential listings in the Inbox, Sent, Log screens established by Nokia.

The iPhone designers are obviously aware that many users often go into texting conversations on the phone, kinda similar to IM chats. So they decided to organize these texting conversations into speech bubbles that can be scrolled back for reference instead of the usual separate Inbox and Sent listings. In addition, mutiple text chats can be stored (by contact name) so that you resume a chain.

This UI will definitely help avid PC IM users transition into text chat on the phone, rather on the iPhone. The question though is just how good is the QWERTY virtual keyboard? I haven't had the chance to do a hands-on but I doubt very much if it can provide a tactile feedback that is often required by users. Personally I feel the keyboard issue will either make or break the iPhone as a mobile phone.

iPhone's Lack of Mechanical Keyboard

Well, D-day for Apple's iPhone is fast approaching and the debate re its missing keyboard is heating up as well.

For me, it is simple. Either Apple's brand cachet is enough to overcome the perceived shortcoming and enable the iPhone to become a bestseller or it won't.

If it does, then the iPhone will definitely change user habits and the mobile experience, especially texting. Most teenaged users around the world (except perhaps in the US) have mastered the art of touch-typing on the phone's keypad that it is not unusual for them to text while their phone is in their pocket or in their bag hidden away from either teachers or parents. This is difficult to achieve without the tactile feedback.

But if sales are lukewarm and users decide to wait for the release of a keyboard-equipped iPhone, my guess is Apple will. After all, the mobile phone market is simply too huge for Apple to ignore. More so, the aftermarket of videos and tunes that Steve Jobs wants so much to dominate.